Decision Island3D Texas Hold'em decision map

The later you act, the more you know, and the wider you can play.

• Open widest on the buttonThe button opens about 40–45% of hands
• Tighten up early6-max early position opens about 15–18%
• Defend the big blindFacing a 2.5 BB open you need about 27% equity
• Call more in positionIn position you often realize 100%+ of your equity
• Steal the blindsThere are 1.5 BB of dead money in the blinds

Good starting hands are about what they can become, not just how high they are.

• Set mining with pocket pairsFlops a set about 11.8% of the time (1 in 8.5)
• Suited connectorsSuited hands are about 23.5% of all starting hands
• Big cards like AKPairs at least one card on the flop about 32%
• Beware dominated handsDominated hands usually have under 30%

A re-raise can build value or apply pressure; size it by position.

• 3-bet for valueIn position, about 3× the open
• Bluff with blockersHolding an ace cuts AA from 6 combos to 3
• Facing a 3-betA typical 4-bet is 2.2–2.5× the 3-bet
• Small blind: 3-bet or foldA common small-blind 3-bet is 4–4.5×

Turn the bet into a required equity and the call decides itself.

• Calling half potCalling half pot needs 25% equity
• Calling a pot-size betCalling a pot-size bet needs 33% equity
• The rule of 4 and 2A flush draw (9 outs) is about 35% from flop to river
• Implied oddsA flush draw on the turn is only about 19.6%

Size depends on the board and on which hands you want to call.

• Bigger bets on wet boardsCommonly 2/3 pot to full pot
• Small bets on dry boardsA common continuation bet is 1/3 pot
• OverbetsA 1.5× pot bet asks for 37.5% equity
• Thin value on the riverYou need over 50% against the calling range

Bluff with a ratio, a reason, and a sense of when to stop.

• Bluff-to-value ratioAt pot size, bluffs make up about 33%
• Semi-bluffsA flush draw has about 35% equity on the flop
• BlockersHolding a king cuts KK from 6 combos to 3
• Knowing when to give upBluff less against players with VPIP over 40%

Your opponent holds not one hand but a whole range.

• Think in rangesThere are 1,326 possible starting combos
• Follow the storyOpening ranges are usually 15–45% of all hands
• Minimum defense frequencyDefend at least 67% against a half-pot bet
• Polarized vs. mergedPolarized ranges often bet 75% pot or more

The same hand is worth different amounts on different boards.

• Dry boardsContinuation-bet frequency often exceeds 70%
• Wet boardsContinuation-bet frequency often drops below 50%
• Paired boardsOnly 2 sevens remain
• Nut advantageCompare the top 5% of each range

Stack depth decides how much risk you can take.

• Stack-to-pot ratioBelow SPR 3, top pair is often happy to get all in
• Short stack: shove or foldA common threshold is about 10–15 BB
• Deep stacks100 BB is the standard cash-game depth
• CommitmentAfter about 33% of your stack is in, you are usually committed

Chips are not prize money; survival has value too.

• ICM pressureOn the bubble, calling an all-in often needs 55–65% equity
• The bubbleUsually about 10–15% of players get paid
• Use the big stack2× the average stack or more counts as big
• The final tableAt a 9-player final table, every bust is a pay jump

Read their habits, then adjust your bets and bluffs.

• Calling stationsVPIP is often above 40%
• Tight, passive playersVPIP is often under 15%
• Loose-aggressive playersVPIP is often above 30%
• Reading the numbersWait for at least 300 hands before judging

Good decisions need a steady mind and enough bankroll.

• Handling tiltTake 3 deep breaths before acting
• Bankroll managementCash games: 20–40 buy-ins
• Stop-loss and breaksA common stop-loss is 3 buy-ins
• Reviewing handsReview 3–5 key hands each session